For 1st time, all regions are projected to experience negative growth in 2020, IMF says
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Thursday once again slashed its economic forecasts, estimating a contraction of 4.9% in global GDP, lower than 3% it predicted previously.
“The COVID 19 pandemic has had a more negative impact on activity in the first half of 2020 than anticipated,” the IMF’s World Economic Output report said.
In 2020, while the global economy is expected to narrow by 4.9%, it will rebound by 5.4% in 2021, according to the report.
“For the first time, all regions are projected to experience negative growth in 2020,” the report highlighted.
The report said advanced economies will contract by 8% in 2020, and they will increase by 4.8% next year.
While the US GDP is expected to drop by 8% in 2020, the eurozone economy will narrow by 10.2%, and Emerging Market and Developing Economies’ (EMDE) GDP will see a decline of 3%.
Major economies in the EU Germany, France, Italy and Spain will post declines of 7.8%, 12.5%, 12.8% and 12.8%, respectively.
Among EMDE countries, Mexico (-10.5) and Brazil (-9.1%) will see the worst declines, while China is the only country which is expected to regsiter increase in GDP by 1% in 2020.
Russia’s economy, which was effected by the decreasing oil prices deeply, is forecast to narrow by 6.6% in 2020 and rebound by 4.1% in 2021.
The report also forecast that oil prices will drop 41.1% in 2020 and increase by 3.8% in 2021.
Turkey’s GDP is also forecast to drop by 5% in 2020 and rebound by 5% in 2021, the report noted.
Global trade to narrow by 11.9%
The fund stressed that beyond pandemic-related downside risks, trade tensions between the US and China, problems among the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and widespread social unrest cause challenges to the world economy.
Saying that countries must collaborate to tackle with challenges, the IMF added: “Beyond the pandemic, policymakers must cooperate to address the economic issues underlying trade and technology tensions as well as gaps in the rules-based multilateral trading system.”
The report added that the global trade will also see a deep contraction this year by 11.9%, due to weaker demand for goods and services, including tourism.
“Consistent with the gradual pickup in domestic demand next year, trade growth is expected to increase to 8%,” it said.