According to the Global LNG Outlook report by the International Energy Economics and Financial Analysis Institute (IEEFA), major LNG importing countries including European countries, Japan, and South Korea aim to reduce LNG demand by 2030.
However, it is anticipated that global LNG suppliers will increasingly depend on growth in emerging markets to compensate for declining import volumes in different regions and absorb new supply flows.
Nevertheless, demand growth for LNG in these emerging countries is not guaranteed.
IEEFA predicts that Europe’s natural gas and LNG demand will decline by 2030, with the continent’s gas demand falling by 20% since 2021 due to energy efficiency measures and an increase in electricity production from nuclear and renewable sources.
China regained its position as the world’s largest LNG importer last year, but domestic natural gas production and additional pipeline imports could limit the country’s LNG demand growth. Unprecedented increases in renewable energy capacity could also constrain LNG demand in the energy sector.
In South Asia, while volatility in LNG prices and financial difficulties are expected to limit short-term growth in LNG demand, delays in LNG infrastructure in Southeast Asia are also predicted to suppress demand growth.
Thus, uncertainties regarding demand growth in the markets and record growth in global LNG export capacity until 2028 are expected to lead the markets into a long-term period of oversupply.
Global LNG export capacity is expected to increase by 40% over the next 5 years, reaching an annual total liquefaction capacity of 666.5 million tons. Currently, LNG projects with a capacity of 193 million tons per year, which will provide this increase, are under construction.
The largest capacity increases are expected in the United States and Qatar, with Australia expected to fall to the third-largest LNG supplier position after this capacity growth. Additionally, significant LNG projects under construction are found in Russia, Canada, and African countries.
source: aa.com.tr/ prepared by Melisa Beğiç