A busy economic agenda awaits Turkey in the last month of the year. While the eyes will be turned into figures such as growth, exports and inflation, steps regarding the new roadmap in the economy will be followed. The economic agenda will be more active in the last month of 2020.
Turkey Statistical Institute (TSI) will announce the growth figures for the 3rd quarter of the year on 30 November, Monday. Periodic gross domestic product (GDP) data for the July-September period will be announced at 10:00. Economists participating in the Finance Growth Expectation Survey expect GDP to grow by 5 percent in the third quarter.
President Erdogan, in his speech at TOBB Turkey economy convention:
‘’We will see that our country diverges positively in terms of production, employment, exports, and growth. It is now certain that we will close the third quarter with a strong growth with the leading data for September.’’
After the coronavirus outbreak in the second quarter of the year, Turkey’s economy shrunk 9.9 percent, with the effect of measures and restrictions.
Export and inflation
Important data to be announced next week will be inflation and export figures. The temporary foreign trade data for November is expected to be announced by the Ministry of Commerce on 2 December. While the negative effects of the contraction of economies all over the world due to Covid-19 were also reflected in exports, these negative effects began to disappear from June. Turkey reached the highest monthly export amount in October with exports worth $ 17.3 billion.
TurkStat will announce the consumer price index and domestic producer price index for November on December 3, Thursday. The consumer price index (CPI) increased by 11.89 percent annually in October and 2.13 percent monthly.
Unemployment and industrial production index will be followed
Unemployment figures, which are another important data for the effects of Covid-19, will be announced on December 10. TURKSTAT will announce the labour force statistics for the September period. The unemployment rate was 13.2 percent in August, there was a 0.8 percentage point decrease compared to the same month last year.
In terms of the effects of the pandemic on the private sector, turnover indices, retail sales indices and industrial production index, which will be announced on Monday, December 14, will also be closely monitored. The Ministry of Treasury and Finance will also announce the budget realizations for November on Tuesday, December 15th.
On the other hand, the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey will announce the text of “Monetary and Exchange Rate Policy for the Year 2021” in December. This text is of great importance in determining the monetary and exchange rate policies for the next year. Along with the text, next year’s financial stability reports, inflation reports, and the calendar of Monetary Policy Committee meetings will be announced.
The last Monetary Policy Committee meeting of the year will be held on 24 December. At its last meeting, the Board increased the one-week repo auction rate (policy rate) by 475 basis points from 10.25 percent to 15 percent. The Central Bank will also announce the balance of payments data for October on December 11th.
Post-budget reform agenda
The Central Government Budget Law Proposal for the year 2021, which was accepted by the Plan and Budget Committee, will become law after the discussions in the General Assembly.
While steps are being taken towards the new era in economy and law, Treasury and Finance Minister Lutfi Elvan and Justice Minister Abdulhamit Gul will continue their meetings with the business world and non-governmental organizations.
Comprehensive reform efforts aimed at starting a new investment, production, export and employment in the economy will be carried out after budget negotiations. Arrangements will be made for the reform steps to be taken in the economy.
The Minimum Wage Determination Commission will hold its first meeting on December 4 to determine the minimum wage that will be valid from January 1, 2021. Millions of employees will have their eyes on this meeting.
source: AA / translated by Melisa Karayusufoglu