Experts evaluate that the issue of oil exports from Iraq to Turkiye, which was stopped last year and could not be restarted due to disagreements between Erbil and Baghdad, can be resolved with the visit of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
Following the decision of the Paris-based International Court of Arbitration regarding oil exports between Turkiye and Iraq, the flow of oil from Iraq to Ceyhan Port stopped on March 25, 2023.
It is estimated that the Iraqi economy has suffered a loss of approximately $14 billion in a year due to the fact that Erbil and Baghdad have not yet reached an agreement on oil exports.
The resumption of oil exports is expected to be one of the important agenda items during President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s visit to Iraq, which is expected to take place on April 22.
Iraqi energy experts think that resuming oil exports from Iraq to Turkiye will have positive effects both for the two countries and for Baghdad-Erbil relations.
“RESTEST OF OIL SHIPMENTS WILL BE GOOD FOR BOTH IRAQ AND TURKIYE”
Energy expert Mazin es-Saad pointed out the ongoing mutual visits between Iraq and Turkiye and said that the oil export issue could be resolved with President Erdogan’s visit.
“The positive atmosphere between Iraq and Turkiye may make this issue (oil shipment) the first agenda item.” Saad said, “We hope and expect results from Erdogan’s visit that will serve the interests of both countries.”
Energy expert Hamza Cevahiri also stated that Iraq has completed the repair of the oil pipeline from Kirkuk to Fishhabur and said that oil shipments were made there for test purposes.
Cewahiri said, “The resumption of oil shipments will be good for both Iraq and Turkiye, and both countries would welcome it. There does not seem to be a problem in this regard.”
“The shipment of KRG oil will benefit the central government’s budget”
Iraqi Energy Center President Firat Mousavi also stated that Iraq continues to repair the pipeline, which has the capacity to transfer 350 thousand barrels of oil per day.
“Oil produced from KRG must come under the control of the central government. This will strengthen Iraq’s hand in shipping oil to Turkiye,” said Mousavi.
Mousavi said, “Restarting the Iraqi oil pipeline opens a big door to negotiations between Baghdad and Erbil.” He made his evaluation and said:
“Ultimately, the shipment of KRG oil will benefit the central government’s budget. As a matter of fact, the Federal Court decided that all oil will be shipped through SOMO. The issue of re-selling oil from KRG will depend on the negotiations to be held during Erdogan’s visit to Iraq.”
“The resumption of oil exports will have a positive impact on the KRG’s market and trade”
Energy expert Rubin Semed also stated that oil exports have a serious impact on the KRG economy and emphasized that the stoppage of oil flow causes concern for the many oil companies working in the region.
Explaining that there are obstacles to oil exports such as agreements made with oil companies and differences in pricing for the extraction of oil in Iraq and KRG, Semed pointed out that exports can easily restart once these are removed.
Semed emphasized that the resumption of oil flow will motivate the activities of oil companies in the region and said, “With the continuation of oil supply, the economic and commercial relations between the region and Turkiye will go to a better point. It will also be positively reflected in the market and trade (in KRG).”
“The resumption of exports will contribute to the solution of the problems between Erbil and Baghdad”
Energy expert Shahriar Sheikhler stated that oil exports are the backbone of the KRG economy and evaluated that the biggest political problem between Baghdad and Erbil is the oil problem.
Stating that some companies have left the KRG for 13 months due to the halt of oil exports, Sheikhs noted that the resumption of exports will have positive repercussions for both these companies and investments in the region.
Sheikhs said, “With the halt of oil exports, the economy of the Kurdistan Region has been disrupted day by day. In my opinion, the continuation of oil supply will make it easier for the economic plans to be implemented.”
Sheikhs commented that the issue regarding KRG civil servant salaries, which is one of the problematic issues between Erbil and Baghdad, could be resolved with the start of oil exports and said:
“This (resumption of oil flow), which will contribute to the solution of some problems (between Erbil and Baghdad), will allow the rapprochement between Erbil and Baghdad and the further development of political and economic relations between Erbil and Turkiye.”
Source: Patronlardunyasi / Prepared by Irem Yildiz