The Central Bank of Turkiye (CBRT) announced the results of the April market participants survey. In the market participants’ survey, the current year-end dollar exchange rate expectation was ₺40.53 in the previous survey period, while it was ₺40.01 in this survey period. Here are the dollar, interest, inflation and growth forecasts…
The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkiye (CBRT) announced the results of the Market Participants survey for April 2024.
According to the survey created from the responses of 68 participants consisting of real sector and financial sector representatives, the current year-end consumer inflation (CPI) expectation was 44.19% in the previous survey period, while it was 44.16% in this survey period. While the 12-month CPI expectation was 36.70% in the previous survey period, it became 35.17% in this survey period. The CPI expectation after 24 months was 22.67% and 22.05%, respectively, in the same survey periods.
Inflation expectations 12 months ahead
In the survey period of April 2024, when the probability estimates of the participants for 12 months ahead are evaluated, the average CPI is expected to be between 30.00% – 33.99% with a 36.36% probability, and between 34.00 – 37.99% with a 38.96% probability. It was predicted that it would increase between 38.00 – 41.99% with a probability of 13.30%.
According to the evaluation made based on point estimates in the same survey period, 32.81% of the participants had expectations between 30.00% and 33.99%, 34.38% had expectations between 34.00% and 37.99%, and 20.31% had expectations between 38.00% and 41.99%.
Inflation forecast after 24 months
When the probability predictions of the participants for 24 months ahead are evaluated in the April 2024 survey period, on average, there is a 28.70% probability that the CPI will be between 16.00% – 20.99%, a 52.52% probability that it will be between 21.00% – 25.99%, and a 9.08% probability that it will be between 26.00% – 30.99%.
According to the evaluation made based on point estimates in the same survey period, when CPI inflation expectations after 24 months are evaluated, 33.93% of the participants had expectations between 16.00% and 20.99%, 42.86% had expectations between 21.00% and 25.99%, and 12.50% had expectations between 26.00% and 30.99%.
Interest expectations
While the participants’ expectation for the current month-end overnight interest rate in the BIST Repo and Reverse-Repo Market was 45.82% in the previous survey period, it became 51.43% in this survey period. The current month-end expectation of the CBRT one-week repo auction interest rate was 50.00% in this survey period, while it was 45.00% in the previous survey period.
Dollar/TL forecast
While the participants’ current year-end exchange rate (dollar/TL) expectation was ₺40.53 in the previous survey period, it became ₺40.01 in this survey period. While the 12-month exchange rate expectation was ₺42.79 in the previous survey period, it was ₺42.47 in this survey period.
GDP growth expectations
Participants’ GDP growth expectation for 2024 was 3.3% in the previous survey period and in this survey period. While the GDP growth expectation for 2025 was 3.8% in the previous survey period, it was 3.7% in this survey period.
Source: Dunya.com / Prepared by Irem Yildiz