S&P raises Europe’s economic growth forecast to 5.1%

Pre-pandemic GDP level can be reached before end of 2021, one quarter ahead of previous projections, agency says

S&P Global Ratings revised the economic growth forecast for 2021 for Europe to 5.1%, up from its previous estimate of 4.4%.

“The rebound of the European economy since restrictions were lifted in March/April has been surprisingly strong, both in terms of GDP and employment,” the global rating agency said in a report on Thursday.

“This forecast uplift for 2021 means that the pre-crisis level of GDP could be reached before the end of this year, one quarter ahead of our previous projections,” it added.

The agency’s growth forecast for 2022 remained unchanged at 4.5%.

Inflation expectation, on the other hand, was revised up to 2.2%, from 1.8%, for this year,the agency said, adding the “strength of the recovery has caused material shortages and rising commodities prices.”

The agency said it expects inflation decelerating below the European Central Bank’s (ECB) target next year, adding the transitory rise in inflation is not a reason for the ECB to tighten its monetary policy yet.

The report also noted that the percentage of fully vaccinated population has nearly doubled in the past three months in the eurozone to reach 65% by mid-September.


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