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MUSIAD: In 2022, Turkey’s growth will exceed 5%

Stating that Turkey is positively differentiated with its performance in the pandemic, MUSIAD President Asmali said, “In 2022, the growth will exceed the forecasts and will be around 5%.”

Mahmut Asmali, President of the Independent Industrialists’ and Businessmen’s Association (MUSIAD), said that 2021 was an effort to compensate for the devastating effects of the pandemic for all economies. “While it is seen that even developed economies are far from their pre-crisis levels at the stage we have reached today, the Turkish economy has succeeded in a positive separation with its performance. The Turkish economy, which we expect to achieve a double-digit growth throughout the year, enters 2022 with this motivation.” Underlining that Turkey is a candidate to become a major production base compared to other countries, thanks to its high manufacturing potential and flexible production capacity, as well as its proximity to major markets, Asmali said, “Not only at the point of being a production and supply base for Western countries, but also thanks to its geopolitical location, it has the potential to produce for a very wide geography, especially the Middle East and North African countries.”

IT WILL PROVIDE A SIGNIFICANT ADVANTAGE

According to Asmali, the industrial production data for the third quarter, when even the leading countries of the global economy are facing the problem of stagnation in their economic activities, and its positive reflections on domestic and foreign demand will be the most important advantage of Turkey in 2022. Noting that Turkey’s reaching an export volume of $203.1 billion in the January-November period of 2021 will be the most important indicator of this, Asmali said: “It is a very likely scenario that our country, which we expect to close the year with record exports of $235 billion, will reach the targeted $242 billion in exports for 2023 within the scope of the MTP in 2022. In the light of the aforementioned developments, we fully believe that the foreign currency input problem in the Turkish economy will be largely overcome in 2022 and beyond, and that we will achieve a structure with a permanent current account surplus.” Stating that the impact of the increase in production and exports on the labor market was clearly felt, Asmali said, “As of the third quarter of 2021, employment in services, agriculture, industry and construction sectors managed to exceed their pre-epidemic levels. When the employment data for the third quarter of 2021, which we can count as the beginning of the pandemic, are compared with the employment data of April 2020, which can be counted as the beginning of the pandemic, employment increases of 469 thousand in agriculture, 539 thousand in construction, 855 thousand in industry and 1 million 519 thousand in the services sector were recorded.”

BACK TO INVESTMENT PERFORMANCE

Asmali stated that he believes that investment increases will return to their previous performance in 2022 and that the successful performance observed in employment will be surpassed, with the reflection of the recession in interest rates on financing costs. Stating that inflation will be the top priority of the world in 2022, Asmali continued: “The inflation problem, which has reached unavoidable levels for all countries, will remain on the agenda for a while, due to the extraordinary increases in raw material prices after Covid-19, the record levels in global energy and food prices, and the problems in supply. However, the TL, which gained value rapidly after the TL Encouragement Package announced by our President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, significantly reduced the cost inflation pressure on its prices in the domestic market. With the full reflection of the effects of these measures on the markets, we estimate that the increases in the general level of prices will converge to normal levels, especially in the second half of 2022.”

POSITIVE IMPACT ON GROWTH

Asmali said, “The year 2022 will be a period in which the strong growth process continues for the Turkish economy. We believe that the changes in domestic demand, net foreign demand and investments will each provide positive support to growth, and that the growth in the Turkish economy will be around 5% in 2022, exceeding the market estimates.”

Source: Sabah / Translated by Irem Yildiz

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