IMF revises up global GDP forecast

International Monetary Fund’s GDP growth expectation for 2021 jumps from 5.5% to 6%

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised up its global gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecast.

According to the IMF’s World Economic Outlook report’s April version, the world GDP growth expectation for 2021 jumped to 6%, up from 5.5% in the fund’s January report.

The global growth forecast for 2022 was also up from 4.2% to 4.4%.

“Yet, even with high uncertainty about the path of the pandemic, a way out of this health and economic crisis is increasingly visible,” the report said.

It added that the fund projected a stronger recovery both in this and next years.

In 2020, the global economy narrowed by 3.3% according to the IMF report.

Advanced economies

The report said advanced economies’ GDP expectation was up from 4.3% to 5.1% in 2021, and from 3.1% to 3.6% for the next year.

Among the advanced economies, the highest forecast for 2021 was 6.4% for both the US and Spain. France (5.8%), the UK (5.3%) and Canada (5%) followed them.

Emerging markets

The fund’s GDP growth expectations for emerging markets were 6.7% and 5% for 2021 and 2021, respectively, versus 6.3% and 5%.

Among emerging economies, highest expectations were for India (12.5%), China (8.4) and Turkey (6%), followed by Mexico (5%), Russia (3.8%), Brazil (3.7%), South Africa (3.1%), Saudi Arabia (2.9%) and Nigeria (2.5%).

World trade

The report also forecast that the world trade, which narrowed by 8.5% in 2020, will expand by 8.4% in 2021 and 6.5% in 2022, revising up from 8.1% and 6.3%.

The fund’s consumer prices expectations were 1.6% in advanced economies, 4.9% in emerging markets for 2021.

The IMF also projected that oil prices will increase by 41.7% in 2021.


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